India should rethink its policy in the emerging cold war with China
INDIA’S MINISTER of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar participates in a working dinner with Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, during the G20 Aichi-Nagoya Foreign Ministers’ meeting, 2019
(photo credit: CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/REUTERS)
In the wake of recent Chinese aggression in the disputed Himalayan border running along the Ladakh area of Kashmir, the debate about India aligning with the United States has resurfaced once again. One of the central questions to India’s China threat is how it should respond in an emerging new cold war in which the United States and China are at loggerheads.
In this globalized and interdependent world, “evasive balancing” is one strategy that can be pursued by countries such as India, Japan, France and Australia. Countries tend to exhibit balancing or band-wagoning behavior when there is an existential threat.
The current framework established to balance China is the formation of a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (known as Quad) in the Indo-Pacific region. But this carries an innate limitation. As former Indian national security advisor Shiv Shankar Menon pointed out in May this year “Indo-Pacific is not the answer to India’s continental security issues, of which there are many, and which are not shared by any of the other members of the Quad.”
The other frameworks such as Japan-America-India (JAI) or India-France-Australia, as suggested by French President Emmanuel Macron, are oriented toward the Indo-Pacific and they share the same maritime limitation. In order to have a holistic strategy, it must include both Indo-Pacific and Eurasian constructs.
It is pertinent for India to have a Eurasian strategy and not inordinately focus on the Indo-Pacific, because China can project power effectively in the Indo-Pacific if it consolidates its position in Eurasia.
Based on the premise of a holistic strategy, if India has to form a trilateral initiative along with Japan and France, then it must not solely focus on the flexibility factor alone.
Rather, it must strive to increase the trust factor also, as these countries can eventually align their policies and face the common threat cohesively. Furthermore, a trilateral initiative should act as a precursor for an alignment, because it is an incremental process and should not be an end in itself.
Since the start of the 21st century, France and Japan have been two important countries with which India has carefully developed bilateral relationships. Over the years, there has been an increasing level of ease among all the three countries while dealing with each other because of the rise of China and a similar vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
India-Japan-France is an efficient trilateral framework because it has the potential to balance China in both the Indo-Pacific and Eurasia, and there is a significant level of convergence on a wide range of global issues including terrorism, piracy, climate change and saving multilateralism in an increasingly multi-polar world.
Ideological solidarity and convergence of interest
It is natural for a state to align itself with another state that shares a similar domestic characteristic, but ideology alone will not bring states together. The convergence of interest plays a vital role as well.
France is one of the permanent members in the United Nations Security Council and a resident Indo-Pacific power. It has a significant military presence in both Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and its Indo-Pacific strategy also aligns with India and Japan.
Moreover, both France and Japan do not attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of India, unlike the United States. They acknowledge the fact that India is a robust democracy and trust in its internal mechanisms.
Decision-making autonomy without asymmetrical dependency
One of the continuing features of the Indian statecraft is to be independent while making decisions, without succumbing to the superpower diktats. Given the current dwindling status of the trans-Atlantic relationship, it is evident that being in alliance with the superpower would only make India as a junior partner, rather than a partner on equal terms.
France has maintained its strategic autonomy, and Japan is trying to strive for strategic autonomy despite being a United States close ally. The India-Japan-France trilateral framework grants the scope to be in a mutually dependent relationship rather than an asymmetrical one.
Aligning with the United States would exacerbate the asymmetry for all the three countries and increase the dominant powers leverage over the weaker ones. The trilateral framework is a favorable option for the three countries to retain strategic autonomy.
Areas of partnership in infrastructure and defense cooperation
As the trilateral partnership incorporates both the Indo-Pacific and Eurasia regions, it broadens the scope for cooperation in infrastructural development in other regions, such as Central Asia and Africa.
Central Asia is the heartland of Eurasia, and Kazakhstan occupies a significant portion of Central Asia. China sees Kazakhstan as its gateway to Europe, and has encouraged the speedy development of some of the most emblematic projects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Notably, some of the most visible projects of BRI are in Kazakhstan. All the three countries have a robust relationship with Kazakhstan, and joint infrastructural development in the region will help Kazakhstan to overcome its excessive dependency on China.
Africa is a crucial region in the Indo-Pacific and realizing that China has been the first mover in terms of upgrading the African ports, railways, and mines. India, Japan and France are not far behind as India’s trade with Africa has reached $100 billion dollars per year and is growing at 35% annually. Some 20% of Indian foreign direct investment is directed toward Africa.
Japan and India enjoy a more favorable public image in Africa than China does. They have formed the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor in partnership with the African Development Bank. France is a traditional power in Africa; it has significant military personnel based in Djibouti. Moreover, in 2015, both France and Japan signed a Joint Plan of Action for Africa and Security Cooperation.
The trilateral partnership will immensely benefit Africa and reduce China’s role in the region. The three countries should declare a joint strategic and global partnership vision which should encompass both Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific regions.
Efforts must be made to institutionalize the 2+2 mechanism, as there is already an existing mechanism between both France and Japan and India and Japan, which would result in a holistic assessment of both the Indo-Pacific and Eurasian regions.
If all the three countries have a joint 2+2 meeting, France can join in the annual Malabar naval exercise and there can be a trilateral maritime exercise in the East African coast and in the Gulf region. In the diplomatic realms, India, Japan and France could start by meeting on the sidelines of various multilateral forums such as ASEM, G20 and G7.
Given all these factors, India needs to be cautious about its alignment in the emerging cold war because in a multi-polar world, middle-power coalitions will be India’s best option as compared to the other viable alternatives.
Dr. Nehginpao Kipgen is a political scientist, associate professor, assistant dean and executive director at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies (CSEAS), Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University. Mohanasakthivel is a research assistant at CSEAS.
Follow us on twitter (ajuede.com) or on Instagram (ajuedeman) for details of the global situation presently.
Like our page on facebook @ Info4everybody Last Wednesday, we published the success story from Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, a board-certified family practitioner in New York, after he successfully treated 350 coronavirus patients with 100 percent success using a cocktail of drugs: hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate. Dr. Zelenko said he saw the symptom of shortness of breath resolved within four to six hours after treatment. Do you know that the ancient Egypt were civilized by architects from the (500,000 - 4000 BC) Nsukka Civiliation? Now, Dr. Zelenko provides updates on the treatment after he successfully treated 699 COVID-19 patients in New York. In an exclusive interview with former New York Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, Dr. Vladmir Zelenko shares the results of his latest study, which showed that out of his 699 patients treated, zero patients died, zero patients intubated, and four ho
Copied from the book, Reality as Myth by Onyeji Nnaji . The influence of the Akan on their content nations lies on their population and commonwealth of their sister nations. The Akan are one of the largest ethnic groups in West Africa. Their population is scattered across West Africa and beyond. Origin of Africa Among this huge population of the Akan, the Ghanaians are more popular, perhaps because of the political influence of the Ashanti Empire in the area. Not much is heard or known about other Akan settlements like the Akwamu, the Akyem , the Akuapem, the Denkyira, the Abron, the Aowin, the Ahanta, the Anyi, the Baoule, the Chokosi, the Fante, the Kwahu, the Sefwi, the Ahafo, the Assin, the Evalue, the Wassa the Adjukru, the Akye, the Alladian, the Attie,the M'Bato, the Abidji, the Avikam,the Avatime the Ebrie, the Ehotile, the Nzema, the Abbe, the Aboure, the Coromantins, t
Taylor Swift says she is focused on the 2020 election but ‘I do feel that the celebrity involvement with Hillary’s campaign was used against her’. Photograph: Dimitrios Kambouris/VMN19/Getty Images for MTV After years of keeping herself at a largely indifferent remove, Taylor Swift has elaborated on her political ideology in a new interview with Rolling Stone. Harkening back to the perceived better times of the Obama years, Swift said, among other things, that she regrets not getting more involved in the 2016 election, and the way her allegiances or lack thereof have been manipulated by bad actors. For years her reluctance to stake out a claim one way or the other made her something of a useful political totem, including, notably, when neo-Nazis and alt-right trolls adopted her as an Aryan ideal. “Firstly, Taylor Swift is a pure Aryan goddess, like something out of classical Greek poetry. Athena reborn,” Andre Anglin of the white supremacist blog the Daily Stormer wrot
Copied from the Book; " Reality as Myth " by Onyeji Nnaji The beauty of the discovering of the Radar Rivers and their channels is that it disproves the western hegemonic claim of the Euphrates valley being the position of the birth of the great river, all the points that opposed their claims notwithstanding. Even God himself was very perfect in His creation by placing them in their positions, hierarchically, according to their birth. The first river that flowed located the Havilah land where there are good quality gold, bdellium and fine onyx stones. Pison was the oldest of the rivers and it flowed through the land of the southern Africa. The second river flowed northward to Ethiopia. It was when Africa had been overtaken by virtue of her proximity to the Great Water that other parts of the world began to encounter the remaining river; remarkable with Hiddekel. Subscribe to ajuede.com to be updated on our posts on dailies. The major problem towards
INTRODUCTION In the history of syntax, prepositions alongside other parts of speech are considered as one of the esteemed contributions of the sophists (the itinerant teachers) to the development of the human language. Etymologically, the term “preposition” belonged to the group of word class Aristotle, the founder, referred to as “syndesmoi”. Others in this group are conjunction , article and pronoun . They were thus grouped by Aristotle because they were found to be performing related functions that are summed up in binding terms and exposing the gaps amidst sentences when they are not included. As a plural term, “syndesmoi” is a collective noun that stands for the group while, conjunction , the part of speech that binds together the discourse and finds gaps in its interpretation was called “syndesmos” (see Robins, 1968). Indicating the function of prepositions, Aristotle called it “Prothesis” (a part of speech placed before other words in a composition
As many of her House Democratic colleagues decided to back the impeachment of President Donald Trump, Democratic Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard on Tuesday said she doesn't support the move because it would be "terribly divisive" for an "already very divided" United States. "Look, my position remains the same. I think impeachment would be terribly divisive for our already very divided country," Gabbard said in an interview with CNN's Brooke Baldwin. "I think Congress needs to exercise oversight over the information that's been leaked. I think it's important this transcript is released to Congress so that Congress can do its job." The 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, in the past, has cautioned against impeaching Trump. Her comments on Tuesday came shortly before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into the President. "The actions of the Trump presidency revealed the dishonorable fact
There are four generations…, and the fourth generation, which is the most exalted, is kingless and perfect. These people will enter the holy place of their Father and they will reside in rest … They are kings. They are the immortal within the mortal ( The Nag Hammadi, 219 ) O ne of the African homes that colonialism has completely deformed beyond certain level of recognition is Nsukka. Colonialism apart, the most affecting factor to the survival of the meaning which the rich cultural enclave, Nsukka, carries will best be blamed on postcolonial political structure. The biggest harm all these have against Nsukka as a people is that they rubbed her of the meaning of her name; their place of origin; how their fathers managed to come into their present abodes and who their ancestors were. A profound understanding of the excerpt above will open the door towards deciphering the meaning and origin of the people called Nsukka. Also read Nsukka Civilization: The Peoplin
Marine lieutenant colonel initially jailed for posting videos critical of the U.S. military’s leadership regarding the withdrawal from Afghanistan will go to trial on Oct. 14-15 at Camp Lejeune near Jacksonville, North Carolina, the Marine Corps announced on Friday. The special court martial hearing for Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller regards the six counts he was charged with on Wednesday, a day after he was released following more than a week of pre-trial confinement. Scheller, an Afghanistan veteran, is accused of: disrespect toward superior commissioned officers; willfully disobeying a superior commissioned officer; dereliction in the performance of duties; failure to obey order or regulation; and conduct unbecoming an officer and a gentleman. The first count — contempt toward officials — was dropped. Scheller was released from pretrial confinement on Tuesday after spending more than a week in the brig. The release followed intense public criticism and rebukes from several members of C
Some Egyptian fans feel the frequent reports of protests by Nigerian players about non-payment of match allowances and bonuses are not doing the African continent any good. Within the last two months, Nigerian teams taking part in international competitions have protested over alleged non-payment of entitlements by the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF). From the Flying Eagles’ participation at the 2019 FIFA U-20 World Cup in Poland, the Super Falcons involvement at the yet to be concluded FIFA Women’s World Cup in France and the Super Eagles’ campaign in the Egypt 2019 AFCON, it has been one squabble over alleged unpaid allowances or another. At the Cairo Stadium on Wednesday night, where the Pharaohs of Egypt defeated Congo 2-0 to move into the round of 16, the issue of Super Eagles’ protests over unpaid wages was the major topic by some of the fans. Those who spoke with The Guardian carpeted the Nigerian players for turning their participation at major championships into