North Korea will likely be a nuclear threat even if its leader, Kim Jong Un, dies from his current potential health crisis, a former CIA Korea Branch chief has told
The Jerusalem Post.
Pyongyang represents one of the world’s greatest security threats since it is viewed as a rogue regime with nuclear weapons and because it has engaged in nuclear technology sharing with Iran and Syria.
Bruce Klinger – who was chief and deputy chief of the CIA’s Korea Branch with 20 years overall in the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency – discussed his views of the global security implications with the
Post following reports since April 12 that Kim’s health situation may be critical.
Klinger, who is also a Senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center, said, “The regime has long emphasized the centrality of nuclear weapons to its national security – and its resistance to negotiating them away.”
He added, “A successor may be more deft in reaching out to foreign countries, as Kim Jong Un was [as opposed to his predecessors] but the underlying objectives and policies would remain constant. Even a stable North Korea will remain a threat.”
Kim, who is only 36 but has had health problems for a long time, has ruled as its unchallenged dictator since inheriting power from his father in 2011.
His death would raise deep questions about what kind of North Korea the world would be facing the day after.
Questions started swirling about
Kim's health after he skipped an April 15 ceremony for the 108th birthday of his late grandfather, North Korea’s founder Kim Il sung.
Kim hadn't missed the ceremony throughout his nine-year reign.
However, North Korea is blocked off from most of the world so it is hard to know the truth.
Explaining why even a “Kim-less” North Korea would not represent a reduced threat, Klinger said, “It is unlikely that Pyongyang would trade away its nuclear weapons when it feels weakened by leadership transition. The next leader would have less of a power base and would be more reliant on support from senior party and military leaders who are overwhelmingly nationalist and resistant to change.”
The former CIA official said that, “The next leader may well pursue a policy that is even more hardline. To secure their hold on power, he (or she) may have to instigate a crisis in order to generate a ‘rally around the flag effect.’”
“Propaganda would highlight the supposed need for increased vigilance against attempts by outside powers to take advantage of North Korea's weakness during a leadership transition,” he continued.
Moreover, “There would be calls to heighten the country's defenses against the US and South Korea and increase, rather than abandon, Pyongyang's nuclear weapons arsenal.”
Regarding the
most likely successors to Kim, Klinger said that two were from the Kim family and one was a non-family member.
Explaining, he said, “Until recently, it was widely assumed that the strict Confucian culture of North Korea precluded choosing a woman to rule the nation. However, Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, has gained prominence and authority in recent years.”
“Though nominally lower in rank to others in the North Korea delegation that attended the South Korean Olympics in 2018, she clearly was the real leader. Since then, she has gained important titles giving her more stature. She recently issued a statement in her name criticizing South Korea’s response to North Korea’s missile launch,” he stated.
Next, might be Kim Jong Un’s uncle Kim Pyong-il, the remaining sibling of previous leader Kim Jong-il.
Klinger noted that, “he also has the ‘Mount Paektu bloodline’ of North Korea’s founder Kim Il sung. But he has spent the last 30 years out of the country in diplomatic exile by serving as ambassador to numerous East European countries. He returned to North Korea late last year.”
Finally, there is Choe Ryong Hae, President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, the nominal head of state and a trusted senior official.
Klinger added that even as he is not a member of the Kim family, “it is rumored his son is married to Kim Jong Un’s sister.”
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